A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
