🔗 Share this article An Prediction Market User Made $436,000 from Bets Predicting the Ouster of Maduro. In this photo illustration, a Polymarket logo is seen displayed on a smartphone. A trader made nearly half a million dollars from wagers on the downfall of Nicolás Maduro immediately preceding it was made public, sparking debate about potential gains made from non-public details of American actions. Changing Odds in Predictions Bets placed on the crypto-platform, a blockchain-based service, that the leader would be removed from office by the end of January increased in the hours before President Donald Trump announced on Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been seized. One account, which joined the platform recently and took four positions, all on political events in Venezuela, profited a total of $436K from a starting bet of over $32,000. The identity is unknown. The user had only a blockchain identifier for identification. Market Signals Before Announcement Platform data shows that users put the odds of a political change at just a low 6.5 percent in the midday period of the Friday before the event. However the market's assessment had climbed to 11% by the end of the day and skyrocketed in the first hours of the next day, suggesting a rapid movement in positions immediately prior to the official statement was made. "This specific wager has all the signs of a transaction based on inside information," said an industry expert. Several of other platform users also earned tens of thousands of dollars from predicting the capture. Legal Questions Intensifies Elected officials are beginning to pay attention. A bill introduced on Monday aims to prohibit federal workers from making trades on prediction markets if they have "confidential government knowledge" related to a bet. The Prediction Market Landscape Forecasting platforms have become increasingly popular in the United States, with users able to wager on everything from sports to politics. This sector encountered regulatory challenges under the previous administration. Yet it has experienced less resistance during the current presidency. Using confidential knowledge is a crime in the stock market, but there are more ambiguous rules in the prediction market industry. A company executive for another major platform said their site "explicitly prohibits insider trading of any form."