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Well. From one perspective, the nation's long-running bid to host the Cop31 next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to put on the world's biggest climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the city of Adelaide next November.

This won't occur. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of the Turkish coastal city, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had believed organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. In recent days, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This contrasted with the message being conveyed at the Cop30 talks in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is not a new issue for the hosting proposal. Although the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been disengaged and at times completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's the negative take. But there is another way to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his colleague from Turkey, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the Cop president, host and effective event manager, and Australia – Bowen himself – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the matters that the nations actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a increased emphasis on the Pacific region, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a strong partnership. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The entire arrangement could fall over before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an approaching car crash for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

Turkey plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the southern pitch.

But, uniquely, Ankara declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been used frequently in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the fracturing geopolitical climate. Without US participation under Donald Trump, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

A Creative Solution

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the fight against climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is most crucial.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who attend international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been asked to co-chair discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. While some have dismissed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president directing proceedings who can listen, build consensus and deliver an ambitious outcome. We saw that in Berlin in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," they note. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

Multiple unanswered questions. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if at all, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the best chance possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific region, Australia and the global community. It's worth a try.